Betting
Commentary
This section is still in progress
2020
2020-06-01 The online prediction market Polymarket was launched. It gained rapid traction during the 2020 presidential election and again in 2024. In 2026 the prediction market users started targeting and threatening people reporting on stats they were betting on.
https://www.wired.com/story/why-this-was-the-wildest-week-for-prediction-markets-yet/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-launches-u-prediction-market-191600195.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/03/17/israel-journalist-polymarket-iran-strike/
https://www.businessinsider.com/israeli-journalist-polymarket-users-threats-bribes-iran-2026-3
https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364060-what-is-polymarket
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
2025
2025-07-04 Trump signed a bill which changed the rules for gambling loss deductions starting in 2026 from 100% down to 90%, potentially causing what some critics worry will be a “tax on phantom income” as well as unregulated offshore betting.
2026 January
2026-01-06 As prediction markets became increasingly popular in 2026 – betting on things like weather and war-time activity – suspicious winnings began to emerge, causing alarm that this type of betting on politics and news may be insider information. For example, very large payouts were reported after Maduro’s capture.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/polymarket-maduro-capture-bet-400000/
https://www.npr.org/2026/01/05/nx-s1-5667232/polymarket-maduro-bet-insider-trading
https://thehill.com/policy/technology/5687162-insider-trading-prediction-markets-venezuela/
https://www.axios.com/2026/01/05/prediction-markets-nicolas-maduro-polymarket
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anonymous-polymarket-accounts-won-1-152546385.html
2026 March
2026-03-26 Democratic Senator Chris Murphy wrote that $1.5B in S&P 500 futures were sold minutes before Trump announced a 5-day pause on attacking Iran. On X, Senator Murphy wrote, “…let me say it again – a $1.5B bet, bigger than any futures purchases made at the time, 5 minutes before Trump’s post. Who was it? Trump? A family member? A White House staffer? This is corruption. Mind blowing corruption”. Dozens of million-dollar bets were being made on the prediction market platform PolyMarket about Iran.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGFkuH7GRX8&list=WL&index=1&t=388s
https://www.commondreams.org/news/traders-bet-trump-iran
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5798756-murphy-trump-oil-iran-insider-trading/
https://x.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/2036277990489764135
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/senator-chris-murphy-calls-1-103700373.html
2026-03-26 Mysterious trading patterns emerged on the PolyMarket trading app (whose investors include a venture capital firm owned by Donald Trump Jr), causing people to suspect insider-trading within Trump’s ranks. As one YouTuber puts it: this type of concern is being reported on in major news outlets, meaning opposing nations could identify insider accounts and infer US battle plans since they are already making huge bets on world events and then cashing out. That puts American servicemembers’ lives at risk.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/polymarket-insider-trading-rules-iran-war-venezuela/
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/insider-trading-prediction-markets-trump-rules-rcna265452
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/25/trump-iran-oil-insider-trading