Betting
Commentary
This section is still in progress
2020
2020-06-01 The online prediction market Polymarket was launched. It gained rapid traction during the 2020 presidential election and again in 2024. In 2026 the prediction market users started targeting and threatening people reporting on stats they were betting on.
https://www.wired.com/story/why-this-was-the-wildest-week-for-prediction-markets-yet/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-launches-u-prediction-market-191600195.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/03/17/israel-journalist-polymarket-iran-strike/
https://www.businessinsider.com/israeli-journalist-polymarket-users-threats-bribes-iran-2026-3
https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364060-what-is-polymarket
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
2024
2024-10-24 Yale article on Polymarket
https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/dont-trust-the-political-prediction-markets
2025 January
2025-01-13 Prediction market Kalshi named Donald Trump Jr. as their paid advisor.
https://news.kalshi.com/p/donald-trump-jr-strategic-advisor
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/kalshi-and-polymarket-congress-regulation-washington-influence.html
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oQdttmT5rb0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8F2z0_Qedk
SUB WALL https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/us/politics/donald-trump-jr-prediction-markets.html
2025 July
2025-07-04 Trump signed a bill which changed the rules for gambling loss deductions starting in 2026 from 100% down to 90%, potentially causing what some critics worry will be a “tax on phantom income” as well as unregulated offshore betting.
2025 August
2025-08-01 Donald Trump Jr. became an investor and sits on the advisory board of Polymarket through his venture capital firm 1789 Capital.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/kalshi-and-polymarket-congress-regulation-washington-influence.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge0grppe3po
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/kalshi-and-polymarket-congress-regulation-washington-influence.html
2025-08-08 WNBA sex toy incident, courtesy of prediction market manipulation.
[https://www.espn.com/wnba/story//id/46038778/ohio-man-arrested-wnba-sex-toy-throwing-liberty-game](https://www.espn.com/wnba/story//id/46038778/ohio-man-arrested-wnba-sex-toy-throwing-liberty-game)
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62w8215g4vo
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/08/sport/basketball-wnba-sex-toy-incidents
https://19thnews.org/2025/08/wnba-dildos-meme-coin-misogyny/
2025 December
2025-12-02 CNN partnered with Kalshi prediction market. CNN gained access to Kalshi’s data through an API and features a Kalshi ticker.
https://www.axios.com/2025/12/02/cnn-kalshi-prediction-market-data
https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-cnn-prediction-market-partnership
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kalshi-becomes-cnn-official-prediction-073203095.html
2025-12-04 CNBC partnered with Kalshi prediction market. Now a Kalshi ticker runs alongside segments of their on-air programming.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/04/cnbc-and-kalshi-strike-exclusive-partnership.html
https://www.businessinsider.com/kalshi-cnbc-deal-cnn-data-integration-partnership-2025-12
2025-12-22 Trump appointed Michael Selig as the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) chair. While one of the CFTC’s tasks is to regulate prediction markets, the chair is an avid supporter of both Trump and prediction markets. He even threatened States for suing prediction markets by posting a video. In that video he said, “To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space let me be clear – we will see you in court”. That video was posted in February 2026.
https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9164-25
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/12/michael-selig-prediction-markets-00865239
https://x.com/ChairmanSelig/status/2023744656647786604
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/see-court-cftc-chair-defends-150757162.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/cftc-selig-prediction-markets-nevada-rcna259352
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-02-17/cftc-chair-sides-with-prediction-markets-video
2026 January
2026-01-06 As prediction markets became increasingly popular in 2026 – betting on things like weather and war-time activity – suspicious winnings began to emerge, causing alarm that this type of betting on politics and news may be insider information. For example, very large payouts were reported after Maduro’s capture.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/polymarket-maduro-capture-bet-400000/
https://www.npr.org/2026/01/05/nx-s1-5667232/polymarket-maduro-bet-insider-trading
https://thehill.com/policy/technology/5687162-insider-trading-prediction-markets-venezuela/
https://www.axios.com/2026/01/05/prediction-markets-nicolas-maduro-polymarket
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anonymous-polymarket-accounts-won-1-152546385.html
2026-01-07 Dow Jones signed a partnership agreement with Polymarket prediction markets.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-increases-media-exposure-dow-184700185.html
2026 February
2026-02-17 Trump appointed Michael Selig as the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) chair. While one of the CFTC’s tasks is to regulate prediction markets, the chair is an avid supporter of both Trump and prediction markets. He even threatened States for suing prediction markets by posting a video. In that video he said, “To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space let me be clear – we will see you in court”. That video was posted in February 2026.
https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9164-25
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/12/michael-selig-prediction-markets-00865239
https://x.com/ChairmanSelig/status/2023744656647786604
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/see-court-cftc-chair-defends-150757162.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/cftc-selig-prediction-markets-nevada-rcna259352
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-02-17/cftc-chair-sides-with-prediction-markets-video
2026 March
2026-03-26 Democratic Senator Chris Murphy wrote that $1.5B in S&P 500 futures were sold minutes before Trump announced a 5-day pause on attacking Iran. On X, Senator Murphy wrote, “…let me say it again – a $1.5B bet, bigger than any futures purchases made at the time, 5 minutes before Trump’s post. Who was it? Trump? A family member? A White House staffer? This is corruption. Mind blowing corruption”. Dozens of million-dollar bets were being made on the prediction market platform PolyMarket about Iran.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGFkuH7GRX8&list=WL&index=1&t=388s
https://www.commondreams.org/news/traders-bet-trump-iran
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5798756-murphy-trump-oil-iran-insider-trading/
https://x.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/2036277990489764135
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/senator-chris-murphy-calls-1-103700373.html
2026-03-26 Mysterious trading patterns emerged on the PolyMarket trading app (whose investors include a venture capital firm owned by Donald Trump Jr), causing people to suspect insider-trading within Trump’s ranks. As one YouTuber puts it: this type of concern is being reported on in major news outlets, meaning opposing nations could identify insider accounts and infer US battle plans since they are already making huge bets on world events and then cashing out. That puts American servicemembers’ lives at risk.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/polymarket-insider-trading-rules-iran-war-venezuela/
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/insider-trading-prediction-markets-trump-rules-rcna265452
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/25/trump-iran-oil-insider-trading
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNBRgrndNoE&list=WL&index=1
2026 April
2026-04-07 Fox News struck a deal with Kalshi for prediction market data.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/fox-news-deal-kalshi-prediction-market-1236557283/
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/5820864-fox-corporation-integrates-kalshi-markets/
2026-04-22 Trump’s struggling media company Truth Social fired CEO Devin Nunes after stock dropped 67%. After firing Devin Nunes, Trump Media & Technology Group (parent company of Truth Social) pivoted to crypto and prediction markets.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/22/politics/devin-nunes-trump-media-truth-social
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/04/truth-social-ceo-out-after-1-1-billion-in-losses/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-truth-social-let-users-113215693.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/president-trump-truth-social-partners-211030247.html
SUB WALL https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/27/trump-social-media-crypto-bitcoin-00370168
UNVERIFIED SOURCE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgBGP7r_a8k
2026-04-23 A U.S. soldier was charged with making $400,000 on Maduro’s arrest in a Polymarket bet.
https://abcnews.com/US/doj-arrests-soldier-made-400000-betting-maduros-removal/story?id=132325426
2026-04-23 Kalshi fined and suspended congressional candidates for betting on their own elections.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/22/politics/kalshi-prediction-site-suspend-political-candidates
2026-04-23 French police probed suspected airport weather device tampering around the same time a Polymarket trader cashed on in a weather report bet.
https://www.npr.org/2026/04/23/nx-s1-5797876/polymarket-paris-weather-bet
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/23/europe/france-weather-sensor-polymarket-bet-intl-latam
2026 May
2026-05-19 Trump sued Minnesota for banning Kalshi prediction markets.
https://www.npr.org/2026/05/19/nx-s1-5821265/minnesota-ban-prediction-markets
[https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story//id/48818821/trump-sues-minnesota-block-law-banning-prediction-markets](https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story//id/48818821/trump-sues-minnesota-block-law-banning-prediction-markets)
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/us-regulator-sues-block-minnesotas-234641314.html