Betting
Commentary
This section is still in progress
2020
2020-06-01 Polymarket was launched and gained rapid traction during both of Trump’s terms.
https://www.wired.com/story/why-this-was-the-wildest-week-for-prediction-markets-yet/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-launches-u-prediction-market-191600195.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/03/17/israel-journalist-polymarket-iran-strike/
https://www.businessinsider.com/israeli-journalist-polymarket-users-threats-bribes-iran-2026-3
https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364060-what-is-polymarket
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
2024
2024-10-24 Yale reported on the ease of manipulating prediction markets.
https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/dont-trust-the-political-prediction-markets
2025 January
2025-01-13 Prediction market Kalshi named Donald Trump Jr. as their paid advisor.
https://news.kalshi.com/p/donald-trump-jr-strategic-advisor
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/kalshi-and-polymarket-congress-regulation-washington-influence.html
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oQdttmT5rb0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8F2z0_Qedk
SUB WALL https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/us/politics/donald-trump-jr-prediction-markets.html
2025 July
2025-07-04 Trump signed a bill to change gambling loss deductions, potentially causing a “tax on phantom income” and unregulated offshore betting.
2025 August
2025-08-01 Donald Trump Jr. is an investor for and sits on the advisory board of Polymarket through his venture capital firm 1789 Capital.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/kalshi-and-polymarket-congress-regulation-washington-influence.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge0grppe3po
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/kalshi-and-polymarket-congress-regulation-washington-influence.html
2025-08-08 WNBA sex toy incident, courtesy of prediction market manipulation.
[https://www.espn.com/wnba/story//id/46038778/ohio-man-arrested-wnba-sex-toy-throwing-liberty-game](https://www.espn.com/wnba/story//id/46038778/ohio-man-arrested-wnba-sex-toy-throwing-liberty-game)
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62w8215g4vo
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/08/sport/basketball-wnba-sex-toy-incidents
https://19thnews.org/2025/08/wnba-dildos-meme-coin-misogyny/
2025 October
2025-10-27 Trump appointed Michael Selig as chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Selig threatened states that challenged prediction markets, saying, “To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space let me be clear – we will see you in court”.
https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9164-25
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/12/michael-selig-prediction-markets-00865239
https://x.com/ChairmanSelig/status/2023744656647786604
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/see-court-cftc-chair-defends-150757162.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/cftc-selig-prediction-markets-nevada-rcna259352
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-02-17/cftc-chair-sides-with-prediction-markets-video
2025 December
2025-12-02 CNN partnered with Kalshi prediction market. CNN gained access to Kalshi’s data through an API and features a Kalshi ticker.
https://www.axios.com/2025/12/02/cnn-kalshi-prediction-market-data
https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-cnn-prediction-market-partnership
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kalshi-becomes-cnn-official-prediction-073203095.html
2025-12-04 CNBC partnered with Kalshi prediction market. Now a Kalshi ticker runs alongside segments of their on-air programming.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/04/cnbc-and-kalshi-strike-exclusive-partnership.html
https://www.businessinsider.com/kalshi-cnbc-deal-cnn-data-integration-partnership-2025-12
2026 January
2026-01-06 People are using insider information on prediction markets.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/polymarket-maduro-capture-bet-400000/
https://www.npr.org/2026/01/05/nx-s1-5667232/polymarket-maduro-bet-insider-trading
https://thehill.com/policy/technology/5687162-insider-trading-prediction-markets-venezuela/
https://www.axios.com/2026/01/05/prediction-markets-nicolas-maduro-polymarket
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anonymous-polymarket-accounts-won-1-152546385.html
2026-01-07 Dow Jones signed a partnership agreement with Polymarket prediction markets.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-increases-media-exposure-dow-184700185.html
2026 March
2026-03-26 Democratic Senator Chris Murphy wrote that $1.5B in S&P 500 futures were sold minutes before Trump announced a 5-day pause on attacking Iran, “…let me say it again – a $1.5B bet, bigger than any futures purchases made at the time, 5 minutes before Trump’s post. Who was it? Trump? A family member? A White House staffer? This is corruption. Mind blowing corruption”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGFkuH7GRX8&list=WL&index=1&t=388s
https://www.commondreams.org/news/traders-bet-trump-iran
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5798756-murphy-trump-oil-iran-insider-trading/
https://x.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/2036277990489764135
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/senator-chris-murphy-calls-1-103700373.html
2026-03-26 More mysterious trading patterns emerged on Polymarket.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/polymarket-insider-trading-rules-iran-war-venezuela/
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/insider-trading-prediction-markets-trump-rules-rcna265452
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/25/trump-iran-oil-insider-trading
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNBRgrndNoE&list=WL&index=1
2026 April
2026-04-07 Fox News struck a deal with Kalshi for prediction market data.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/fox-news-deal-kalshi-prediction-market-1236557283/
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/5820864-fox-corporation-integrates-kalshi-markets/
2026-04-22 Trump Media fired Truth Social CEO Devin Nunes after stock dropped 67%, and TMTG pivoted to crypto and prediction markets.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/22/politics/devin-nunes-trump-media-truth-social
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/04/truth-social-ceo-out-after-1-1-billion-in-losses/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-truth-social-let-users-113215693.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/president-trump-truth-social-partners-211030247.html
SUB WALL https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/27/trump-social-media-crypto-bitcoin-00370168
UNVERIFIED SOURCE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgBGP7r_a8k
2026-04-23 A U.S. soldier was charged after making $400,000 on Maduro’s arrest in a Polymarket bet.
https://abcnews.com/US/doj-arrests-soldier-made-400000-betting-maduros-removal/story?id=132325426
2026-04-23 Kalshi fined and suspended congressional candidates for betting on their own elections.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/22/politics/kalshi-prediction-site-suspend-political-candidates
2026-04-23 French police probed suspected airport weather device tampering around the same time a Polymarket trader cashed on in a weather report bet.
https://www.npr.org/2026/04/23/nx-s1-5797876/polymarket-paris-weather-bet
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/23/europe/france-weather-sensor-polymarket-bet-intl-latam
2026 May
2026-05-19 Trump sued Minnesota for banning Kalshi prediction markets.
https://www.npr.org/2026/05/19/nx-s1-5821265/minnesota-ban-prediction-markets
[https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story//id/48818821/trump-sues-minnesota-block-law-banning-prediction-markets](https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story//id/48818821/trump-sues-minnesota-block-law-banning-prediction-markets)
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/us-regulator-sues-block-minnesotas-234641314.html
2026 July
2026-07-15 “Kalshi’s ‘Segregation Market’ Turns Black Suffering Into a Betting Line”
https://lasentinel.net/kalshis-segregation-market-turns-black-suffering-into-a-betting-line.html
https://timesnews.net/news/382161/kalshi-draws-backlash-over-jackie-robinson-prediction-market-ad/
2026-07-16 Karoline Leavitt responded to questions about Trump’s teleprompter entablements with insider trading on the Kalshi market calling them a “disgrace”.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-condemns-staffer-accused-betting-trump-speech-disgrace
2026-07-17 France blocked access to Polymarket.
https://www.theverge.com/policy/967756/polymarket-is-being-blocked-in-france