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A chronological record of major political events in modern American history.

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2020

2020-06-01 Polymarket was launched and gained rapid traction during both of Trump’s terms.

https://www.wired.com/story/why-this-was-the-wildest-week-for-prediction-markets-yet/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-launches-u-prediction-market-191600195.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/03/17/israel-journalist-polymarket-iran-strike/

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2026/03/polymarket-insider-trading-going-get-people-killed/686283/

https://www.businessinsider.com/israeli-journalist-polymarket-users-threats-bribes-iran-2026-3

https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364060-what-is-polymarket

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket

2024

2024-10-24 Yale reported on the ease of manipulating prediction markets.

https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/dont-trust-the-political-prediction-markets

2025 January

2025-01-13 Prediction market Kalshi named Donald Trump Jr. as their paid advisor.

https://news.kalshi.com/p/donald-trump-jr-strategic-advisor

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/kalshi-and-polymarket-congress-regulation-washington-influence.html

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oQdttmT5rb0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8F2z0_Qedk

SUB WALL https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/us/politics/donald-trump-jr-prediction-markets.html

2025 July

2025-07-04 Trump signed a bill to change gambling loss deductions, potentially causing a “tax on phantom income” and unregulated offshore betting.

https://carry.com/news/gamblers-face-tax-bills-on-losses-starting-2026#:~:text=Starting%20January%201%2C%202026%2C%20millions,stakes%20players%20who%20itemize%20deductions.

https://www.avemarialaw.edu/why-congress-must-urgently-restore-the-gambling-loss-deduction/#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20making%20the,during%20such%20taxable%20year%2C%20and

https://www.plunkettcooney.com/tax-law-estate-plans-probate-business-succession/gambling-tax-deductions

2025 August

2025-08-01 Donald Trump Jr. is an investor for and sits on the advisory board of Polymarket through his venture capital firm 1789 Capital.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/kalshi-and-polymarket-congress-regulation-washington-influence.html

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/trump-jr-joins-polymarket-advisory-board-as-1789-ups-stake/ar-AA1Lg5OU

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge0grppe3po

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/kalshi-and-polymarket-congress-regulation-washington-influence.html

2025-08-08 WNBA sex toy incident, courtesy of prediction market manipulation.

[https://www.espn.com/wnba/story//id/46038778/ohio-man-arrested-wnba-sex-toy-throwing-liberty-game](https://www.espn.com/wnba/story//id/46038778/ohio-man-arrested-wnba-sex-toy-throwing-liberty-game)

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62w8215g4vo

https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/08/sport/basketball-wnba-sex-toy-incidents

https://19thnews.org/2025/08/wnba-dildos-meme-coin-misogyny/

2025 October

2025-10-27 Trump appointed Michael Selig as chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Selig threatened states that challenged prediction markets, saying, “To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space let me be clear – we will see you in court”.

https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9164-25

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/12/michael-selig-prediction-markets-00865239

https://x.com/ChairmanSelig/status/2023744656647786604

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/see-court-cftc-chair-defends-150757162.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/cftc-selig-prediction-markets-nevada-rcna259352

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-02-17/cftc-chair-sides-with-prediction-markets-video

2025 December

2025-12-02 CNN partnered with Kalshi prediction market. CNN gained access to Kalshi’s data through an API and features a Kalshi ticker.

https://www.axios.com/2025/12/02/cnn-kalshi-prediction-market-data

https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-cnn-prediction-market-partnership

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kalshi-becomes-cnn-official-prediction-073203095.html

2025-12-04 CNBC partnered with Kalshi prediction market. Now a Kalshi ticker runs alongside segments of their on-air programming.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/04/cnbc-and-kalshi-strike-exclusive-partnership.html

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/cnbc-signs-deal-with-kalshi-add-prediction-data-next-year-2025-12-04/

https://www.businessinsider.com/kalshi-cnbc-deal-cnn-data-integration-partnership-2025-12

2026 January

2026-01-06 People are using insider information on prediction markets.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/polymarket-maduro-capture-bet-400000/

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/a-400000-payout-after-maduros-capture-put-prediction-markets-in-the-spotlight-heres-how-they-work

https://www.npr.org/2026/01/05/nx-s1-5667232/polymarket-maduro-bet-insider-trading

https://thehill.com/policy/technology/5687162-insider-trading-prediction-markets-venezuela/

https://www.axios.com/2026/01/05/prediction-markets-nicolas-maduro-polymarket

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anonymous-polymarket-accounts-won-1-152546385.html

2026-01-07 Dow Jones signed a partnership agreement with Polymarket prediction markets.

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/dow-jones-signs-deal-with-polymarket-add-prediction-data-across-outlets-2026-01-07/

https://www.dowjones.com/press-room/polymarket-and-dow-jones-publisher-of-the-wall-street-journal-announce-exclusive-prediction-market-partnership/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-increases-media-exposure-dow-184700185.html

2026 March

2026-03-26 Democratic Senator Chris Murphy wrote that $1.5B in S&P 500 futures were sold minutes before Trump announced a 5-day pause on attacking Iran, “…let me say it again – a $1.5B bet, bigger than any futures purchases made at the time, 5 minutes before Trump’s post. Who was it? Trump? A family member? A White House staffer? This is corruption. Mind blowing corruption”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGFkuH7GRX8&list=WL&index=1&t=388s

https://www.commondreams.org/news/traders-bet-trump-iran

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5798756-murphy-trump-oil-iran-insider-trading/

https://x.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/2036277990489764135

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/senator-chris-murphy-calls-1-103700373.html

2026-03-26 More mysterious trading patterns emerged on Polymarket.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/23/bets-us-iran-ceasefire-show-signs-of-insider-knowledge-say-experts-polymarket

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/polymarket-insider-trading-rules-iran-war-venezuela/

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/insider-trading-prediction-markets-trump-rules-rcna265452

https://www.axios.com/2026/03/25/trump-iran-oil-insider-trading

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/25/large-polymarket-wall-street-bets-on-trumps-war-news-under-scrutiny

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNBRgrndNoE&list=WL&index=1

2026 April

2026-04-07 Fox News struck a deal with Kalshi for prediction market data.

https://www.reuters.com/business/fox-integrate-kalshi-prediction-market-data-across-news-platforms-2026-04-07/

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/fox-news-deal-kalshi-prediction-market-1236557283/

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/5820864-fox-corporation-integrates-kalshi-markets/

2026-04-22 Trump Media fired Truth Social CEO Devin Nunes after stock dropped 67%, and TMTG pivoted to crypto and prediction markets.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/22/politics/devin-nunes-trump-media-truth-social

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/04/truth-social-ceo-out-after-1-1-billion-in-losses/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-truth-social-let-users-113215693.html

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-media-replaces-nunes-as-truth-social-ceo-after-stock-plunge-that-wiped-out-billions

https://www.newschannel20.com/news/nation-world/trump-media-has-pivoted-to-crypto-financial-services-and-nuclear-fusion-its-stock-keeps-falling/article_3d3a1e6d-6065-57d8-ac38-ea5dd1cf6cb7.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/president-trump-truth-social-partners-211030247.html

SUB WALL https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/21/former-republican-rep-devin-nunes-out-as-trump-media-ceo-00886234

SUB WALL https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/27/trump-social-media-crypto-bitcoin-00370168

UNVERIFIED SOURCE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgBGP7r_a8k

2026-04-23 A U.S. soldier was charged after making $400,000 on Maduro’s arrest in a Polymarket bet.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-arrests-soldier-accused-betting-400000-maduro-removal-abc-news-reports-2026-04-23/

https://abcnews.com/US/doj-arrests-soldier-made-400000-betting-maduros-removal/story?id=132325426

2026-04-23 Kalshi fined and suspended congressional candidates for betting on their own elections.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/kalshi-fines-and-suspends-3-congressional-candidates-for-betting-on-their-own-elections

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/22/prediction-market-kalshi-docks-three-us-candidates-for-betting-on-own-races

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/22/politics/kalshi-prediction-site-suspend-political-candidates

2026-04-23 French police probed suspected airport weather device tampering around the same time a Polymarket trader cashed on in a weather report bet.

https://www.npr.org/2026/04/23/nx-s1-5797876/polymarket-paris-weather-bet

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/23/europe/france-weather-sensor-polymarket-bet-intl-latam

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/france-probes-weather-data-tampering-075950500.html

2026 May

2026-05-19 Trump sued Minnesota for banning Kalshi prediction markets.

https://www.npr.org/2026/05/19/nx-s1-5821265/minnesota-ban-prediction-markets

[https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story//id/48818821/trump-sues-minnesota-block-law-banning-prediction-markets](https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story//id/48818821/trump-sues-minnesota-block-law-banning-prediction-markets)

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/us-regulator-sues-block-minnesotas-234641314.html

2026 July

2026-07-15 “Kalshi’s ‘Segregation Market’ Turns Black Suffering Into a Betting Line”

https://lasentinel.net/kalshis-segregation-market-turns-black-suffering-into-a-betting-line.html

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-tied-prediction-market-kalshi-quietly-pulls-jackie-robinson-baseball-segregation-gambling-ad/

https://www.phillytrib.com/commentary/kalshis-segregation-market-turns-black-suffering-into-a-betting-line/article_887fcdb3-4a3e-4961-bfde-b6347db31d17.html

https://timesnews.net/news/382161/kalshi-draws-backlash-over-jackie-robinson-prediction-market-ad/

2026-07-16 Karoline Leavitt responded to questions about Trump’s teleprompter entablements with insider trading on the Kalshi market calling them a “disgrace”.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-condemns-staffer-accused-betting-trump-speech-disgrace

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/07/16/white-house-employee-bet-trump-speeches/90945294007/

2026-07-17 France blocked access to Polymarket.

https://www.theverge.com/policy/967756/polymarket-is-being-blocked-in-france

https://www.reuters.com/technology/french-internet-service-providers-told-block-access-polymarket-2026-07-17/