Tariffs & Trade
1987
1987 For context, Regan warned back in the 80’s that tariffs are dangerous.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DIAJLh9xmp-/?hl=en
2018
2018-03-01 Trump imposed tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum from China.
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/TRUMP-TARIFFS/STEEL/gdpznwgdzpw/
https://www.cfr.org/article/trumps-new-aluminum-and-steel-tariffs-explained-six-charts
2018-04-01 By April 2018, the U.S. entered a trade war with China.
2025 March
2025-03-06 Trump proposed linking a Ukraine minerals deal with a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war in effort to secure American access to Ukraine’s natural resources.
https://www.npr.org/2025/04/30/nx-s1-5382384/ukraine-us-minerals-deal
https://www.csis.org/analysis/breaking-down-us-ukraine-minerals-deal
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/01/world/what-we-know-about-trumps-ukraine-mineral-deal-intl
2025-03-11 During a press conference, an AP journalist asked, “Have you ever paid a tariff? Because I have. They don’t get charged on foreign companies. They get charged on the importers” to which Karoline Leavitt responded, “and ultimately, when we have fair and balanced trade, which the American people have not seen in decades, as I said at the beginning, revenues will stay here, wages will go up, and our country will be made wealthy again. And I think it’s insulting that you are trying to test my knowledge of economics and the decisions that this president has made. I now regret giving a question to the Associated Press”.
TIMESTAMP 29:28 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iBnfLloO5Q&list=WL&index=2&t=862s
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5188744-ap-reporter-white-house-tariffs’
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/ever-paid-tariff-reporters-press-172121176.html
CAPITULATING FOX ARTICLE https://www.foxnews.com/media/karoline-leavitt-shuts-down-ap-reporter-after-insulting-question-tariffs
2025 April
2025-04-02 The White House posts reciprocal tariff charts on X which included uninhabited islands. The Commerce Secretary stated placing tariffs on uninhabited islands was intentional to tackle any “loopholes”.
2025 July
2025-07-30 Trump signed an executive order implementing an additional 40% tariff on Brazilian products. Several online sources suggested it was a retaliatory measure in response to Bolsonaro’s arrest.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/07/addressing-threats-to-the-us/
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-tariffs-put-bolsonaro-brazilian-right-bind-2025-07-15/
2025 August
2025-08-01 Trump’s trade war caused the manufacturing sector to lose 42,000 jobs between April 2025 through August 2025 alone.
2025-08-25 The Congressional Budget Office released a projected tariff revenue of $3.3T (trillion) but did not explain how that would weigh against the proposed $3.4T (trillion) budget increase proposed by the Trump administration, how to improve the job market, or what percentage of the tariffs consumers would be paying for themselves.
https://apnews.com/article/cbo-trump-tax-bill-republicans-senate-5f591bea21bd95eec45ba90c93c50687
https://www.crfb.org/blogs/tariffs-are-generating-meaningful-new-revenue
2025-08-29 The U.S. ended exemptions on small cost exports.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-ends-tariff-exemption-all-low-value-packages-2025-07-30
https://apnews.com/article/de-minimis-exemption-end-date-dutyfree-48862fc5b6a563a077284e364fb14f08
2025-08-29 The federal appeals court ruled that Trump’s tariffs were an overreach.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy983g8jr5do
2025 September
2025-09-18 Senator Elizabeth Warren sparred with Sara Eisen about tariff policies and explained to her how making a deal to exclude some companies’ items from tariffs is “greasing palms”.
2025 October
2025-10-24 Trump announced plans to buy beef from Argentina. For context, Trump had just bailed Argentina out with $20 BILLION in American taxpayer funds a week prior (unrelated note: American meat processing plants also profit from things like byproducts, leather, and glue).
https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/12/economy/argentina-america-bailout-currency
2025-10-24 Trump refused trade talks with Canada because of an ad campaign out of Ontario featuring a 1987 video of Ronald Regan warning that tariffs are dangerous.
https://www.npr.org/2025/10/24/nx-s1-5584890/trump-trade-talks-canada
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5584667-carney-trump-canada-tariff-ad-apology/
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5571676-trump-ends-canada-trade-talks/
2025-10-30 Trump discussed trade deals in China with Xi Jinping, lowering tariff rates to 47% and establishing that China will buy 25M metric tons of soybeans annually over the next 3 years.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/30/trump-xi-south-korea-rare-earth-tariff-trade-war-nvidia.html
2025 November
2025-11-20 The Trump administration greatly expanded offshore sales of oil and gas and continued to tout Trump’s “drill-baby-drill” agenda.
https://www.heritage.org/energy/commentary/new-wave-american-offshore-energy
2025 December
2025-12-14 Trump announced he would use $12B of tariff revenue to bailout farmers who were hurting from the tariffs.
2026 February
2026-02-19 JP Morgan reported that mid-size companies were hit the hardest from tariffs and that manufacturing jobs were not actually coming back to the U.S. like Trump promised.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tariff-costs-triple-midsized-us-050100454.html
2026-02-20 During the State of the Union, Trump accused the Supreme Court of being unpatriotic and disloyal to the Constitution, and a disgrace to our nation, after the justices ruled 6-to-3 to invalidate his illegal tariffs. The next day he raised the global tariff to 15%.
https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-1287_4gcj.pdf
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-raises-global-tariff-15-percent
2026-02-27 After the Supreme Court ruled Trump’s tariffs illegal, sources reported that Trump administration officials were devising legal strategies to keep the billions of dollars acquired from the tariffs.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/02/26/trumps-next-tariff-fight-keeping-the-money-00799774
2026 March
2026-03-10 Strikes on Iranian oil fields wouldn’t just effect gas prices. It would also affect the global fertilizer trade for growing crops and global helium supplies.
https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/03/fertilizer-iran-hormuz-food-crisis
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/20/iran-war-us-farming-impact
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/assessing-iran-wars-impact-global-fertilizer-supplies
https://www.ifpri.org/blog/the-iran-war-potential-food-security-impacts
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/15/nx-s1-5747927/the-war-in-iran-is-impacting-earths-supply-of-helium
2026-03-19 Scott Bessent said the US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5791639-bessent-oil-sanctions-lift-iran-conflict/
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d415g55nno
2026-03-19 Plastics are made with petroleum. The Iran war economic impact would reach consumer plastics such as food packaging, resin and polymer markets…essentially any materials made with plastics. Since plastics are a cheap way for corporations to pad their profit margins, it is to be expected they will also pass this cost onto the consumers. Also, the aluminum market was affected.
https://www.plasticstoday.com/resin-pricing/iran-war-creates-a-dire-strait-for-resin-pricing
2026-03-26 Wall Street suffered its worst day since the start of the Corona Virus pandemic. The price of crude oil topped $110 a barrel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGFkuH7GRX8&list=WL&index=1&t=388s
https://fortune.com/2026/03/18/oil-prices-110-crude-brent-iran-war-israel-strait-hormuz-lng/
2026-03-26 Ukrainian drones struck ports and refineries along the Baltic sea, halting at least 40% of Russian oil export capacity. Zelenskyy reported that the U.S. was making any security guarantees for Ukraine contingent upon Ukraine giving up its defense of the Eastern Donbas region.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGFkuH7GRX8&list=WL&index=1&t=388s
2026 April
2026-04-13 Due to the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran, chief economist Maximo Torero of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization warned a lengthy disruption in trade at the Strait of Hormuz will result in a global food crisis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwgxQMSZzbA&list=WL&index=1&t=2s
https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/04/1167289
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-892976
2026-04-17 The worlds 100 top oil and gas companies banked $30M per hour during the first month of the Israeli-Iran war.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/15/big-oil-huge-war-windfall-consumers
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/unearned-profit-is-an-interesting-idea-no
2026-04-18 Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again, saying the U.S. violated agreements by continuing to blockade Iranian ports.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHk4qj-lRlo&list=WL&index=2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYZAszfqfRw&list=WL&index=1&t=7s
2026-04-19 Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney said economic ties with the U.S. are a weakness that must be corrected. He stated, “We have to take care of ourselves because we can’t rely on one foreign partner…we can’t control the disruption coming from our neighbors”.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-trump-trade-u-s-negotiations-weaknesses-9.7169671
https://www.dw.com/en/canadas-us-ties-have-become-a-weakness-says-carney/a-76852129
2026-04-19 The Trump administration announced the kick-off of a $166B tariff refund for businesses only, which they can submit a claim for online. It is unclear whether the refund will fully compensate businesses or only in part. It is also unclear whether consumers (like you and me) who picked up the cost of the tariffs will see a refund.
https://apnews.com/article/tariff-refund-trump-customs-08861f153801156d213c30c4e2f6a683
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/20/trump-tariffs-us-business-refunds-customs-ace-portal
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/20/economy/tariff-refund-process-kicks-off
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/supreme-court-blow-trump-admin-launches-166b-tariff-refund-portal
2026-04-28 The UAE (United Arab Emirates) departed from OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries).
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/uae-opec-exit-oil-iran-war.html
2026-04-30 On this date, the U.S. debt was larger than its GDP.
2018 PROJECTION https://www.cato.org/blog/us-only-country-projected-rising-government-debt-gdp-ratio-through-2023
SUB WALL https://fortune.com/2026/04/30/national-debt-larger-than-economy-gdp-ratio-100-percent/
2026 May
2026-05-03 The Trump tariff refund claims process proved to be a farse when small businesses started receiving rejected claims.
https://www.npr.org/2026/05/03/nx-s1-5805045/tariff-refunds-small-business
https://www.npr.org/2026/02/24/nx-s1-5723862/trump-tariffs-refunds-small-business
2026-05-03 After Trump’s tariffs, heavy spending, and elective war in Iran all took a toll on the economy, Spirit Airlines liquidated all its assets.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/01/spirit-airlines-trump-bailout.html
2026-05-09 “Why is the U.S. pouring money and support to countries selling agricultural products to China?” In 2024 the U.S. obligated roughly $6.37M to Argentina
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WObLO2hXP44&list=WL&index=3
2026-05-12 When reporters asked him about the war in Iran, Trump replied, “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation – I don’t think about anybody”.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/12/world/live-news/trump-iran-war-news
2026-05-13 Trump met with President Xi Jinping in China to discuss trade and arms sales.
https://apnews.com/article/trump-xi-china-trip-arrival-353c768987542843e2033aa684266879
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/whats-at-stake-as-trump-heads-to-china-for-talks-with-xi
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/13/politics/live-news/trump-china-visit-arrival-ceremony-hnk
2026-05-13 Senator Slotkin on fertilizer shortage caused by the war in Iran and the importance of Michigan potash.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPXrXwuyAq8&list=WL&index=2
2026-05-14 Trump’s puppet JD Vance denied that Trump said, “I don’t think about American’s financial situations…”.
https://newrepublic.com/post/210395/jd-vance-donald-trump-never-said-care-even-little-bit-americans